What can be built on the lot next to a Madrona house in October 2026? The answer comes in two parts, and they run on different timelines. Seattle's comprehensive plan page says that the code on a typical residential street changed in January and already allows at least four homes per lot. Along the 34th Avenue commercial strip, a larger rezone is drawn on a city map and is now waiting on a hearing examiner, a court remand and a Council calendar that points to 2027.
Neither part predicts what a buyer is likely to see go up over the next few years. Both describe permission, and in Seattle right now, permission is easier to come by than money for construction. The cost of building limits what changes in Madrona far more than the zoning code does.
Next door, four homes is the floor
Seattle passed interim middle-housing rules on May 27, 2025, and they took effect June 30, 2025, as a temporary bridge to permanent legislation. On December 16, 2025, the City Council adopted the One Seattle Plan along with the permanent Neighborhood Residential ordinance, and both took effect January 21, 2026. These are the rules in force on most of Madrona's residential blocks today.
The city's January 2026 summary of the Neighborhood Residential standards sets the core terms:
- Density: the greater of four homes or one per 1,250 square feet of lot, with six allowed within a quarter mile of a major transit stop or when at least two homes are affordable
- Accessory units: count toward that total
- Critical areas: lots with environmentally critical areas get proportionately less unit capacity
- Envelope: 32-foot height with specified paths to 42 feet, 50% lot coverage, and reduced setbacks for projects of three or more units
- Parking: generally one space per two homes, with exemptions that include homes within a half mile walk of a major transit stop and units of 1,200 square feet or less
SDCI's March 2026 explainer sums it up: most lots in the zone went from one allowed home to four, some to six, with more height and buildable area. Four is also not the ceiling. After adoption, PubliCola calculated that stacked-flat incentives could allow eight homes on a 5,000-square-foot lot, and as many as ten with tree and green-feature bonuses.
So on paper, the house beside a Madrona listing has been a possible multiplex site since January. Through early October, though, local news coverage has not named a single fourplex or sixplex filed in Madrona under the new rules. That is a gap in the reporting, not proof that none exist, but it is worth knowing about when a seller or a neighbor talks about change as if it were already underway.
On 34th Avenue, a 55-foot proposal waits on a hearing
The second set of rules covers the business district. The One Seattle Plan designates a Madrona Neighborhood Center, but the Center got smaller before it was adopted. In August 2025, PubliCola reported that Councilmember Joy Hollingsworth proposed cutting the Madrona center by about seven blocks, or nearly 40 percent. Her amendment trimmed single-family areas on the east and west sides and concentrated new housing around the existing commercial stretch, which also includes a school, a library and a playfield where housing cannot be built. The Urbanist's tally of the September 2025 votes records the Madrona amendment as passed.
The boundary only says which blocks are in the center. The zoning inside it was left to a second phase called Centers and Corridors. On the city's proposed District 3 zoning map, commercial parcels along 34th Avenue currently zoned NC1-30 and NC1-40 would become NC2-55. A city summary quoted by Capitol Hill Seattle Blog describes Neighborhood Centers as allowing residential and mixed-use buildings of up to six stories in the core, with four- and five-story residential buildings toward the edges.
None of that zoning has taken effect, and the sequence explains why:
- June 1, 2026. The Washington Court of Appeals ruled that SEPA appeals of the plan's environmental review had been improperly dismissed. The Urbanist reported that Land Use Committee chair Eddie Lin said Phase II "will be significantly delayed."
- July 28 and 31, 2026. The Council passed and the mayor signed Council Bill 121215, now Ordinance 127477, which limits city-level SEPA appeals. It came too late to affect the appeals already filed.
- August 10, 2026. The Council's comprehensive plan page says the Phase II process is on hold because of the litigation, with meetings likely to resume in early 2027.
- September 11, 2026. King County Superior Court sent the matter back to the Seattle Hearing Examiner and reinstated two appeals, one from Friends of Ravenna-Cowen and one from an individual appellant.
- October 8, 2026. The Hearing Examiner has scheduled a prehearing conference by Zoom to set deadlines and witness schedules. It is a scheduling session, not a ruling on the merits.
Mayor Katie Wilson's separate "Taller Denser Faster" effort sits further out. The Urbanist reported in May that a final vote was expected after the 2027 general election and could slip into 2028.
Why permission has not turned into construction
If the zoning were the constraint, the January change would have opened the floodgates. The citywide permit numbers point the other way.
The Urbanist reported in August that permit applications filed in Seattle from January through June 2026 represented 1,137 housing units, 30% fewer than in the same period of 2025. The article noted the count is preliminary and may undercount, because unit totals are not required at intake. On October 1, the same outlet reported that SDCI expects Seattle to finish 2026 with 60% fewer master-use permit applications than in 2019, lower than in 2010 during the Great Recession. Construction permit volume is forecast to be about 15% lower, with a sharp shift toward smaller projects.
Fees are going up at the same time. Wilson's proposed budget would raise SDCI permit fees 10.7%, on top of an 18% increase last year, because 91% of the department's budget comes from fees. For a four-unit townhouse project, the kind of building the new rules invite onto a Madrona lot, permit costs would rise from $12,214 in 2025 to $15,953 in 2027. The Urbanist also points to higher interest rates, rising construction costs and an uncertain economy as reasons fewer projects can move forward. SDCI's interim director, Samuel Steele, told councilmembers that projects have become smaller and less complex. Lin was blunter:
"It's pretty alarming and concerning on many different levels."
Lin has also acknowledged that upzones won't do the city much good if the economics and permit costs keep projects from happening. That is the case for Madrona's residential blocks too. The rule allowing four homes per lot is real, and the math has to work before anyone builds them.
What the August numbers add
NWMLS does not publish a Madrona-only figure. The closest geography is map area 390, Central Seattle, which also covers neighborhoods well beyond Madrona. Here are single-family results for August 2026, from data NWMLS released September 3:
| August 2026, single-family | Central Seattle, area 390 | City of Seattle |
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $1,198,000 | $920,000 |
| Change from August 2025 | down 8.2% from $1,305,000 | down 8.0% from $1,000,000 |
| Active listings | 229, up from 204 | 1,510, up from 1,187 |
| Months of inventory | 3.42 | 3.41 |
For a buyer, these numbers point to more choice and a lower median than a year earlier. For anyone weighing a Madrona lot as a multiplex site, they have a second meaning. A softer resale market alongside rising permit fees and costly construction financing narrows the margin a small builder needs. The market data and the permit data are describing the same slowdown.
Reading a Madrona house with both timelines in mind
Because the two rule sets move separately, a buyer considering a specific Madrona property can ask different questions about each.
For a house on a residential street, the relevant rules are already in effect. The city's interactive zoning map and the January 2026 standards show whether a parcel falls in the Neighborhood Residential zone. Factors such as distance to a major transit stop or an environmentally critical area change how many units a neighboring lot could hold. Whether those units get built depends on the cost conditions described above, which can shift with rates and fees.
For a property on or near the 34th Avenue commercial strip, the relevant change is still a proposal. Until the Council adopts Phase II, NC2-55 on that strip is a line on a map. The hearing examiner's schedule and the Council's 2027 calendar are the dates to watch. Our Capitol Hill and Madrona neighborhood page and our monthly market report cover the wider context, and owners curious about how these rules affect their property's value can start with a home valuation. None of this is legal advice, and parcel-specific questions belong with the city or a land use attorney.
FAQ
Can a fourplex be built on a typical Madrona lot today? Under the Neighborhood Residential rules in effect since January 21, 2026, most lots in the zone allow at least four homes, and more in certain cases. Lots with environmentally critical areas allow proportionately fewer.
Is the 55-foot zoning on 34th Avenue in effect? No. It is part of the Centers and Corridors proposal, which is on hold while the reinstated SEPA appeals go back through the Hearing Examiner. The Council expects to pick it up again in early 2027.
Did the Madrona Neighborhood Center get smaller? Yes. Councilmember Hollingsworth's 2025 amendment, which passed, cut it by about seven blocks and concentrated it around the commercial strip on 34th Avenue.
If you're weighing a Madrona property and want to understand what the current rules, the pending rezone and this fall's permit costs mean for that specific parcel, Melissa Boucher can walk you through it with discretion and clear numbers. Let's Connect.